Bruno Valverde Cota
PhD in Management and International Executive
Portugal is not facing an immediate structural crisis. It is growing above the Eurozone average. Unemployment is under control. Exports remain resilient. But stability is not strategy. And growth is not convergence.
Portuguese productivity remains about 25% below the European Union average. This is the real risk indicator: productivity determines wages, innovation, and the ability to compete globally. Without it, growth is circumstantial.
In 2022, Portugal invested around 1.7% of GDP in research and development. The European average exceeds 2.2%. Countries such as Sweden, Austria, or Germany invest above 3%, and South Korea exceeds 4%. These figures are not academic statistics — they are clear signals of strategic priority.
The problem is not a lack of talent. It is a lack of scale and focus.
If we want to avoid gradual irrelevance, we need concrete decisions.
First: increase investment in R&D to 3% of GDP by 2030, with at least two-thirds coming from the private sector. This requires stable tax incentives for a decade, public-private co-investment funds, and radical simplification of application mechanisms.
Second: create three strategic industrial hubs with international scale — for example, energy and green hydrogen in the south, industrial technology and automation in the north, blue economy and biotechnology along the Atlantic coast. Concentration generates critical mass; dispersion perpetuates mediocrity.
Third: reform university funding criteria by introducing economic impact metrics — registered patents, startups created, industrial contracts secured. Knowledge that does not generate economic value loses competitive traction.
Fourth: encourage business growth. Portugal has an excess of microenterprises and a shortage of globally competitive mid-sized companies. Creating progressive tax benefits for companies that double exports within five years or surpass a certain productivity threshold would send a clear pro-scale policy signal.
Fifth: reform risk culture. Simplify insolvency and restructuring processes to reduce the stigma of failure. Innovative economies learn fast because they fail fast.
Meanwhile, the United States is strengthening industrial policy with hundreds of billions of dollars. China consolidates nearly 30% of global industrial production. The Middle East is aggressively investing in technological diversification. The world is choosing positioning.
The question is simple: do we want to compete or merely survive?
Complacency arises when we celebrate European funds without measuring structural returns. When we confuse administrative execution with economic strategy. When we believe current stability guarantees the future.
It does not.
Small countries cannot afford to be reactive: either they choose focus and scale, or they become peripheral in global value chains.
The greatest risk is not facing transformation — it is entering the next decade with the same ambition as the previous one.
Relevance is not an acquired right.
It is a strategic decision repeated over time.
Published on: 02 Mar 2026
https://www.dn.pt/opiniao-dn/o-maior-risco-no-a-crise-a-complacncia
